云计算--第三次IT革命 Cloud Computing Revolution--the third IT industry revolution

¡ 云计算简介
¡ 为什么现在发生云计算变革
¡ 云计算对IT产业的影响
¡ 云计算如何改变人类社会

Introduction to Cloud computing
Why does cloud computing revolution come now
How Cloud computing change IT industry
How Cloud computing change the world
Material

¡ 云计算是IT产业的第三次变革，前两次是个人计算机变革和互联网变革。
¡ 个人计算机变革从80年代到整个90年代。
¡ 互联网变革发生在九十年代及最近十年。
¡ 云计算变革，从现在开始。。。
Cloud computing is the third revolution of IT industry, following the Personal computer revolution and the Internet revolution.
Personal computer revolution happens at 1980s and 1990s.
Internet revolution happens at 1990s and last 10 years.
Cloud computing revolution, happens, now…



¡ 个人计算机变革将昂贵的、只在特殊行业中使用的大型主机变成每个人都可以负担得起都能使用的个人电脑，提高了个人的工作效率和企业的生产效率。
¡ 个人计算机变革中诞生了一批伟大的公司：IBM、微软、惠普、戴尔、甲骨文、SAP等。
Personal computer revolution change the expensive mainframe only used in special industries, to personal computer everybody can afford, it improved personal work efficiency and company’s production efficiency.
Numbers of great companies come from this revolution: IBM, Microsoft, HP, Dell, Oracle, Sap, etc...

¡ 互联网变革将数亿计的单个信息孤岛汇集成庞大的信息网络，方便了信息的发布、收集、检索、共享，极大提高了人类沟通和共享以及协作的效率，丰富了人类的社交和娱乐。
¡ 互联网变革中诞生了一批伟大的公司：思科、Yahoo、Google、Amazon、EBay等 。
Internet revolution join billions of information island to a huge information network, make it convenient to publish/collect/index/sharing information, highly improved people’s communication/sharing/collaboration efficiency, enriched people’s social life and entertainment.
Numbers of great companies come from this revolution:Cisco systems, Yahoo, Google, Amazon, Ebay, etc…


¡ 云计算变革将信息产业变成绿色环保和资源节约型产业，将IT基础设施变成如水电一样按需使用和付费的社会公用基础设施，将软件产业变成传统工业流水线一样的高效产业，极大地简化企业的IT管理，有效降低企业的IT基础设施成本，全面提高社会整体信息化水平，将所有电子产品变成具备无限性能和容量的设备，信息化将成为社会的组织的、个人的基本属性。
¡ 如果需要了解云计算，可以在互联网上查找我的另一个Presentation：云计算介绍。
Cloud computing revolution will change information technology to green and resource saving industry, make the IT infrastructure to social public Infrastructure like the water and electric with use on demand and pay per use, make the software industry to a high efficiency industry like the traditional industry pipeline, simplify corporate IT management greatly, reduce corporate IT infrastructure cost greatly, improve the informationization level of the social entirely, make all the electric products to devices with infinity performance and capacity, informationization will be organization and individual’s basic property.
If you need to get a basic understanding of cloud computing, please search my other presentation: Introduction to cloud computing.


¡ 狭义云计算是指IT基础设施的交付和使用模式，指通过网络以按需、易扩展的方式交付和获得所需的资源（硬件、平台、软件）。 提供资源的网络被称为“云”。“云”中的资源在使用者看来是可以无限扩展的，并且可以随时获取，按需使用，随时扩展，按使用付费。这种特性经常被称为像水电一样使用IT基础设施。
¡ 广义云计算是指服务的交付和使用模式，指通过网络以按需、易扩展的方式获得所需的服务。这种服务可以是IT和软件、互联网相关的，也可以使任意其他的服务。
Cloud computing key features
The narrow cloud computing is a IT infrastructure deliver and usage model, means deliver and use the resource(hardware,plateform,software) with on-demand and easy to scale through internet. The network to provide resource is called cloud, the cloud seems like scalable infinitely, can get it anytime, and use and scale it on demand, pay per use.
The generalized cloud computing is a service deliver and usage model, means deliver and use the service with on-demand and easy to scale through internet. These service can have relation with IT/software/Internet, or any another service.

¡ 云计算是一场IT变革，是一场提高社会生产力的IT变革，是一场推动社会整体信息化的IT变革，是一系列具有相同核心特征的商业模式集合。
¡ 云计算不是一种商业模式，不是一种付费模式，不是一种IT技术，不是一类IT产品，不是SOA，不是虚拟化或虚拟化软件，不是简单地将购买变为租赁，不是分布式计算，不是高性能计算，不是网格计算，不是软件即服务。
Cloud computing is what, isn’t what
Cloud computing is an IT revolution, an IT revolution to improve the social productivity, an IT revolution to advance the infomationization of the whole society, is a collection of business models with the same core features.
Cloud computing is not one business model, is not a kind of payment method, is not an IT technology, is not an IT product, is not SOA, is not virtualization or virtualization management softewrae, is not simply the change of purchase to lease, is not distributed computing, is not high performance computing, is not grid computing, is not Saas.

为什么会发生这场云计算变革？同所有的变革一样，它是技术进步、需求推动、商业模式转变共同推动的结果。主要推动因素如下：
— 虚拟化技术的快速发展
— CPU等硬件的快速发展
— 宽带网络的快速发展
— 企业对IT基础设施的需求快速增长
— 互联网行业对IT基础设施的需求变化迅速
— 市场对云计算商业模式逐渐认可
— 少数云计算先行者已经获得一定成功
— 经济危机迫使用户降低总体拥有成本和减少一次性投入

Why does this cloud computing revolution come? Like any other revolution, it is a result of the technology progress, market requirement drive, business model transition. The major driving factors include:
The virtualization tech and market's fast develop
The hardware's fast develop, like CPU and network device
The wide band network's fast develop
The fast increase of corporate IT infrastructure requirement
The fast change and time-to-market requirement of Internet application
The recognize of cloud computing business models
Some cloud computing pioneers seems earning money
Economy crisis force companies to cut cost


云计算将对IT产业的各个领域产生革命性的影响：
¡ 对服务器和桌面电脑领域的影响
¡ 对芯片制造商的影响
¡ 对基础设施外包服务的影响
¡ 对互联网应用的影响
¡ 对传统桌面应用的影响
¡ 对中小企业的IT部门的影响
¡ 对大型企业的IT部门的影响
¡ 对平台即服务产业的影响
¡ 对软件开发的影响
¡ 对软件销售的影响
¡ 对宽带运营商的影响
¡ 对嵌入式设备的影响
¡ 对信息安全领域的影响
有些影响可以迅速可见，有些影响则需要若干年才能显现出来。而云计算，作为IT产业的第三次变革，将会对IT产业产生深远影响，有些影响在当前和短时间内则不可预料，云计算可能会彻底改变IT产业格局。

How cloud computing change IT industry?
Cloud computing will give many IT domains revolutionary impact:
Chip design and manufacture
Server and PC
IT infrastructure out sourcing
Internet application
Desktop application
IT department of SME
IT department of big enterprise
Platform as a service
Software develop
Software distribution
Broad band operator
Embedded device and handset
Information security
Some impact will be seen in recent year, and others need 5 to 15 years. And some other impact we can not forecast currently, but certainly it will change the IT industry structure.

云计算变革将进一步加大服务器和个人电脑的差距。云计算变革将继续保持不断提高服务器性能的需求，将使服务器的性能按照摩尔定律发展，而同时云计算将是个人电脑的性能需求不再无限提高。服务器同时还会提供对硬件虚拟化的更好支持，提供更好的远程管理、节能管理支持。服务器在网络和存储上的性能将会进一步提高。
因为个人电脑在保持灵活性、便捷性、廉价的原则下，将追求性价比和适用，不再追去纯粹性能提升，也不会出现频繁的硬件升级。个人电脑的硬件和操作系统对网络的支持将更加完善。
同时，桌面电脑、手提电脑、上网本、智能手机之间的差异将会越来越小，特别是手提电脑、上网本、智能手机融合为一个超级移动计算终端。该终端具备手提电脑的功能，同时具备只能手机的便捷性。
Cloud computing impact on server and PC
Cloud computing revolution will increase the difference between server and PC. The servers will have the increasing performance requirement, maybe develop according the Moore's Law. But the PC not always have this requirement.
Servers will provide better support to hardware virtualization, remote management, power saving management. The performance of network and storage will improved greatly.
PC will pursue cost-effective and suitable to maintain agility, Cost-effective, convenient, low-cost. PC will not always pursue high performance or frequent hardware upgrade.
PC’s hardware and OS will give better support to broad band network.
At the same time, the difference of PC/laptop/netbook/mobile telephone will less and less, especially, laptop/netbook/mobile telephone will merge to a super terminal, this terminal have the performance and function of current laptop, but the size will be similar to telephone.

云计算变革，以及其对IT产业的影响，将迫使芯片制造商发生如下改变：
• 处理器芯片厂商更好支持处理器虚拟化和存储管理
• 服务器网卡芯片将需要更好支持网络虚拟化
• 存储芯片将更好支持存储虚拟化和容量扩展
• 个人电脑和其他移动设备将采用对移动宽带网络支持更好的无线接入芯片
Cloud computing impact on chip industry
Cloud computing, with it’s impact on IT industry, will force chip designer and manufacture:
Processor company support Processor virtualization and memory management
Network adapter and router/switch company support network virtualization better
Disc company support storage virtualization and capacity scale better
Network adapter support wireless broad band access better

对基础设施外包服务的影响
基础设施服务商需要做的改变：
快速部署
缩小主机规模
提高资源利用率
提高管理效率
降低运维成本
基础设施可以放置在低土地和能源成本的地区
提供商业连续性服务
提高服务水平
复杂的体系结构
商业模式和理念的转变
Cloud computing impact on IT infrastructure outsourcing
IT infrastructure provider will have to implement:
¡ Fast Provision
¡ Reduce servers scale
¡ Increase resource utilization rate
¡ Improve management efficiency
¡ Lower maintenance cost
¡ Location of infrastructure in areas with lower costs of real estate and electricity
¡ Provide business continuity service
¡ Improve management efficiency
¡ Improve service levels
¡ Complex architecture
¡ Change of business model and faith


对互联网应用影响
由于采用云计算基础设施服务，服务器自动扩展、存储资源无限扩展、数据库无限扩展、负载均衡自动调整都将变为可能，构建高负载的大型网络应用将变得更为容易，甚至可能出现Paas服务商将大型网络应用的部署和扩展变成若干个鼠标操作。随着云计算基础设施服务的不断出现，整合基础设施服务和应用开发平台的Paas服务商必然会大量出现。
Cloud computing impact on Internet application
After using infrastructure cloud, servers can scale automatically, storage resource can scale infinitely, database can scale infinitely, load balance can adjust automatically, it will be easy to build a large scale network application.
Some Paas provider will make the task of deploy and scale a network application to click some buttions.
And with the cloud computing infrastructure service’s increasing, Paas provider will arise more and more to conform infrastructure and application develop platform.


对传统桌面应用的影响
随着Paas和Saas的兴起，互联网应用将越来越丰富，有些互联网应用将可以直接代替桌面应用。
未来5年，基于浏览器的应用能代替90%的桌面应用，但不是必须的。
通过远程桌面、桌面虚拟化等技术，所有的桌面应用都可以放在互联网上，但不是必须的。
基于互联网的应用包括基于浏览器的应用，基于互联网的应用最终会超过桌面应用，8年内，将达到80：20的比例。


Cloud computing impact on traditional desktop application.
With the rise of Paas and Saas, network application will be more and more, some of the Internet application can replace desktop application directly.
Applications based on browser can replace 90% of desktop applications in next 5years, but this replication is not obligatory.
Using remote desktop or desktop virtualization, all the desktop application can be on the internet, but is not obligatory.
The applications based on Internet will exceed desktop application in 8 years, and get to 80:20.

对中小企业的IT部门的影响
中小企业的IT投资将大为降低，特别是软件开发、互联网应用开发企业的初始投资将大为降低。
非IT开发企业可能不需要IT部门，甚至不需要办公电脑以外的服务器，可能采用第三方提供的标准或定制化的远程企业数据中心服务。
中小企业有可能以较少的人力成本，利用Paas和Saas服务，开展大规模的业务。
Cloud computing impact on SME IT department
The IT infrastructure investment of SME will decrease, the software company and Internet company’s initial hardware investment will decrease greatly.
Non-IT companies can not have IT department, or no need to have servers besides office computer, they can use standard or customized remote corporate database service.
SME can use few stuff, with using Paas and Sass service, to have large business.


对大型企业的IT部门的影响
大型企业的业务对云计算的使用将经过三个阶段：非关键业务使用公用云，关键业务使用混合云，关键业务使用公用云。
对大型企业的IT部门并不会因为使用云计算而大幅减少雇员，云计算确实会带来成本的降低和管理的便利，但也会出现更多的问题需要解决。
大型企业的IT部门将能够更有效监控各业务和部门对资源的消耗，甚至可以进行内部结算，迫使业务开发和运营部门更节约IT资源。
Cloud computing impact on IT department of big enterprise
Big enterprise will experience three phase: use public cloud for non-critical business, use hybrid cloud for critical business, use public cloud for critical cloud.
The employees of IT department will have a little decrease, but only a little. Cloud computing will give cost-saving and management-convenient to companies, but there will be other problems to deal with because of cloud computing.
IT department can monitor the resource consumption of very business or department, and do internal capital settlement, and this will force the business develop and operation department to save IT resource.


对平台即服务产业的影响
基础设施云计算服务已经提供了很多便利，但该类服务也会越来越多，会产生整合这些基础设施服务或者屏蔽不同服务商差异的Paas服务，为应用开发提供更多便利。
平台即服务产业将会促进中间件市场的普及和流水线模式组装软件的产生。
Cloud computing impact on Paas
Cloud computing infrastructure service give many benefits, and the kind of these service will increase, there will be Paas provider to consolidate these service and shield the difference of different IaaS, to give more convenience to application develop.
Paas will drive midware market and software assemble pipeline.

对软件开发的影响
云计算操作系统可能出现，它将屏蔽各个云计算基础设施服务的API，形成统一的云计算操作系统API，这套API将由某个国际组织制定，但目前多个国际组织在试图主导这套API，还无法确定哪一个会胜出。各个Paas商，或者某些Iaas服务商会支持这套API。
自动扩展的分布式软件变得可能。软件自身根据自身的负载状况，利用云计算操作系统API扩展各种基础设施资源。
新的软件开发模式将出现：基于云计算操作系统的开发模式。传统的内存扩展、内存缓存、服务器扩展、数据库扩展、存储容量扩展、备份等问题将不会成为应用开发人员主要考虑的问题，这些问题将由Paas商和云计算操作系统解决。
Cloud computing impact on software develop
Cloud computing operating system will come, it will shield Iaas api and Paas service, form a uniform Cloud computing OS API.
It will be possible to develop auto-scale distributed software.
New software develop model will come with new programming language. The traditional memory scale, memory cache, server scale, database scale, storage capacity scale, backup will not be developer’s main problem, it will be resolved by Paas and cloud computong OS.

对软件销售的影响
Saas模式软件销售在10年内将超过基于授权许可证的销售，基于授权许可证的销售将主要存在于特殊行业中必须独占运营的软件。
软件免费和开源、服务收费的模式将持续增长，并在15年内超过付费私有软件。
无论是开源软件、免费软件、私有软件，在十年之后，都将以在线销售为主，云计算为在线销售提供了极大的便利。
Cloud computing impact on software distribution
Saas model revenue will exceed license model revenue in 10 years, license model will only used in special industry.
Free and open source software with the service-pay model will increase.
Most of Opensrouce/Free/propriety software will be distributed online, cloud computing give great convenience for online sell.

对宽带运营商的影响
在今后的10年，宽带运营商将需要两次大的网络设备升级，第一次发生在今后几年，主要满足单签迅速发展的视频、社交等需求。第二次发生在5年以后，云计算变革将对宽带的速率、质量产生更大的需求。
宽带运营商可能与Iaas服务商合作提供Iaas服务，但宽带运营商单独提供Iaas服务的尝试将失败。
Cloud computing impact on broad band operators
In the next ten years, broad band operators will need two major network device upgrades. The first are going, and will last for some years because of the fast develop of online video and SNS website. The second will take place five years later, cloud computing revolution produce more requirements on band rate and quality.
Broad band operators can provide IaaS service with IaaS provider, but they will fail to launch IaaS by themselves.



对嵌入式设备的影响
嵌入式设备的性能还需要不断提高，但不需要无限提高，只要满足作为云计算客户端的性能需求即可。
智能手机、手提电脑将主要使用云计算基础设施服务。
智能家电都将接入互联网，人类将能通过互联网控制家电。
嵌入式设备接入互联网的规模将大大超过桌面电脑。顺便说一句，移动运营商、移动终端制造商试图控制移动互联网入口和内容的尝试将失败。
Cloud computing impact on embedded and handset device
Performance of embedded and handset device will be improved, but not infinitely, to be a suitable cloud client is enough.
Intelligent Mobile and laptop will mostly use IaaS.
Intelligent Home Appliances will connect to Internet, people can control home appliances through Internet.
The size of Mobile Internet will exceed desktop-access internet. By the way, Mobile operators, broad band operators, mobile terminal manufactures will fail at trying to control Internet entry or content.

对信息安全领域的影响
杀毒和黑客的博弈将继续存在。云计算为标准客户端和客户端管理提供了便利，但并不能阻止黑客的攻击行为。
杀毒模式将发生改变。现在的云安全杀毒事实上还是基于病毒库，基于病毒库和虚拟机的杀毒模式将会继续存在，但效果仍然不理想。
将会诞生安全搜索引擎公司：该搜索引擎开始工作后，将监控计算机的一切行为和每个应用程序/网页在本机和互联网上的行为模式，从而判断该应用/网页的安全性。
Cloud computing impact on information security
Antivirus and hacker will still be there. Cloud computing give convenience to standard client and client management, but this can not prevent attack action.
Antivirus model will change. Antivirus models based on virus database and virtual machine will exist, but the effect is not good.
There will be security search engine corporate. After the engine’s working, it will monitor the computer’s action and all the application and all the website pages, and it will analysis the applications and web pages based on it’s action throughput the whole network.



云计算作为IT产业的第三次变革，将不仅仅影响IT产业，也将对人类社会产生深远影响，主要在如下方面：
社会各行业信息化和智能化程度显著提高
人来社会将变成以信息为中心的社会
企业将信息系统视为基本条件
企业的IT和信息系统将可以在不同的服务商之间迁移。
将产生为创立企业提供全套IT和信息系统服务的公司。
How cloud computing change the world?
Cloud computing as the third IT revolution, not only impact IT industry, but also deeply impact human society, such as:
Most industry’s informationization and intellectualization will improved greatly.
Human society will be a information-centric society.
Information system will be the basic condition for a company.
The IT and information system can be migrated to different providers.



社会各行业信息化和智能化程度显著提高
嵌入式设备、传感器、人工智能设备将会广泛应用于各个行业。
工业流水线上需要的将不再是工人，而是传感器、机械手等。
机器人将能代替人进行各种危险性工作。
企业将通过云计算基础设施管理各种嵌入式设备、传感器、人工智能设备。
Most industry’s informationization and intellectualization will improved greatly
Embedded device, sensor, artificial intelligence device will be use broadly in many industries.
There will be sensors and manipulator at the manufacture pipeline, instead of workers.
Robot will do all the dangerous work for human.
Corporate will manage embedded device, sensor, artificial intelligence device on cloud computing Iaas.


人来社会将变成以信息为中心的社会
每个人将拥有两个大脑：人体大脑和信息大脑。
各个社会组织和企业的主要活动将是通过互联网进行。
网络通路将成为与电力、水一样重要的基础设施。
无线宽带将取代移动通信。

Human society will be a information-centric society
Every people will have two heads: body head and information head.
A major part of actions of the organization and corporate will be performed on Internet.
Network will be social infrastructure like water and electric.
Wireless broad band will replace mobile communication.

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http://www.myplick.com/view/9a0nFGWbtnm/-IT

英文版PPT：
http://www.myplick.com/view/fCc927sXOg2/Cloud-Computing-Revolution-the-third-IT-industry-revolution